Commissioned research: Xbrane Biopharma AB
Xbrane provides an exceptionally attractive exposure to the rapidly growing biosimilars market without the significant clinical and approval risk that is often present in biotech companies.
We maintain the Outperform rating and raise the target price to SEK 155 per share, corresponding to an equity value of SEK 3 billion non-diluted, derived from a project-based, risk-adjusted DCF valuation of the lead asset Xlucane with fairly conservative estimates; real-world data on biosimilars supports an even more bullish outlook.
Commissioned research: Ascelia Pharma AB
Ascelia Pharma’s announcement of a three to six-month delay of the ongoing pivotal phase III SPARKLE study is not surprising given the circumstances with the ongoing covid-19 pandemic and its impact on clinical trials.
In our previous update, we estimated launch during 2022. The revised timeline has a marginal impact on our valuation as the DCF model is mainly impacted by the free cash flow in the final years of the forecast. Our risk-adjusted DCF valuation of the lead project Mangoral results in a value for Ascelia of SEK 52 per share, down from SEK 54 per share.
Commissioned research: Ascelia Pharma AB
Ascelia Pharma has included the first patient in its pivotal, fully financed and an exceptionally straightforward phase III SPARKLE study with the lead asset Mangoral, targeting global launch in 2022.
We estimate a relatively high 75% likelihood that the imaging drug Mangoral will reach the market on the back of strong cumulative clinical data and a solid, straightforward Phase III design.
Commissioned research: Bio-Works Technologies AB
Bio-Works’s net sales for full year 2019 were SEK 5.6 million, down SEK 1 million from 2018. The decrease is due to the fact that the company’s largest customer in 2018 did not place an order in 2019.
In this update, we have looked beyond Bio-Works’s obvious stochastic character of the order inflow as we believe this is symptomatic for all early commercialization stage companies and not a structural problem for Bio-Works as such.
Commissioned research: AlzeCure Pharma
Biogen’s progress with its Alzheimer’s disease drug (aducanumab) gives support for the amyloid hypothesis and significantly strengthens AlzeCure’s case.
The company’s Alzstatin-program focuses on disease-modifying therapies for early Alzheimer’s disease by reducing the production of amyloid beta.
Commissioned research: Bio-Works Technologies AB
We believe that Bio-Works is now entering a new era as a professionally structured commercial player due to the following recent advancements;
i) consecutive quarterly customer growth; ii) fast traction in the important Protein A segment shortly post launch of the product WorkBeads affimAb; and iii) activist-like investments by the new owners and board members Peter Ehrenheim (Chairman) and Thomas Eklund (Director), holding a total of 17% together with a group of similar investors.
Commissioned research: Immunovia AB
For the first time, test results with new blood, and across all risk groups Recent news flow from Immunovia has been intense and will continue to be intense in the coming quarters.
The news about the last phase of the IMMray PanCan-d optimisation was important for particularly two reasons, we believe.
Commissioned research: Ascelia Pharma AB
Ascelia Pharma’s application to achieve patent coverage for a new Mangoral product has potentially several important implications, both in the medium and long term.
Following the planned 2022 launch of Mangoral in the US and Europe, the product’s orphan drug status and data exclusivity will protect sales for a period of between 7-10 years.