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Analys

 

Vator Securities uppdragsanalys erbjuds till ett fåtal utvalda life science-bolag – ”By Invitation Only”.

 

Commissioned Research: AlzeCure Pharma

7 juli 2020

AlzeCure has with its seven-project portfolio multiple shots at goal where each, while early stage, represents a potential multibillion-dollar opportunity.

We update our rating to Outperform and raise the target price to SEK 16 per share, corresponding to an equity value of approximately SEK 600m non-diluted, derived from risk-adjusted DCF valuation of ACD856 and ACD440. 

Commissioned research: Immunovia AB

1 juli 2020

By being at the forefront of proteomics-based technology, nearing launch of the first to market, outstandingly accurate blood-based test for early detection of pancreatic cancer, we see Immunovia as an apparent strategic target for acquisition.

We maintain the Outperform rating and raise the target price to 300 SEK per share, corresponding to an equity value of SEK 6.8 bn non-diluted, derived from a DCF valuation of the opportunity in pancreatic cancer.

Commissioned research: Xbrane Biopharma AB

2 juni 2020

Xbrane provides an exceptionally attractive exposure to the rapidly growing biosimilars market without the significant clinical and approval risk that is often present in biotech companies.

We maintain the Outperform rating and raise the target price to SEK 155 per share, corresponding to an equity value of SEK 3 billion non-diluted, derived from a project-based, risk-adjusted DCF valuation of the lead asset Xlucane with fairly conservative estimates; real-world data on biosimilars supports an even more bullish outlook.

Commissioned Research: Ascelia Pharma AB

26 maj 2020

Ascelia Pharma’s announcement of a three to six-month delay of the ongoing pivotal phase III SPARKLE study is not surprising given the circumstances with the ongoing covid-19 pandemic and its impact on clinical trials.

In our previous update, we estimated launch during 2022. The revised timeline has a marginal impact on our valuation as the DCF model is mainly impacted by the free cash flow in the final years of the forecast. Our risk-adjusted DCF valuation of the lead project Mangoral results in a value for Ascelia of SEK 52 per share, down from SEK 54 per share.

Commissioned Research: Ascelia Pharma AB

20 februari 2020

Ascelia Pharma has included the first patient in its pivotal, fully financed and an exceptionally straightforward phase III SPARKLE study with the lead asset Mangoral, targeting global launch in 2022.

We estimate a relatively high 75% likelihood that the imaging drug Mangoral will reach the market on the back of strong cumulative clinical data and a solid, straightforward Phase III design.

Commissioned Research: Bio-Works Technologies AB

18 februari 2020

Bio-Works’s net sales for full year 2019 were SEK 5.6 million, down SEK 1 million from 2018. The decrease is due to the fact that the company’s largest customer in 2018 did not place an order in 2019.

In this update, we have looked beyond Bio-Works’s obvious stochastic character of the order inflow as we believe this is symptomatic for all early commercialization stage companies and not a structural problem for Bio-Works as such.

Commissioned research: AlzeCure Pharma

24 oktober 2019

Biogen’s progress with its Alzheimer’s disease drug (aducanumab) gives support for the amyloid hypothesis and significantly strengthens AlzeCure’s case.

The company’s Alzstatin-program focuses on disease-modifying therapies for early Alzheimer’s disease by reducing the production of amyloid beta.

Commissioned Research: Bio-Works Technologies AB

19 september 2019

We believe that Bio-Works is now entering a new era as a professionally structured commercial player due to the following recent advancements;

i) consecutive quarterly customer growth; ii) fast traction in the important Protein A segment shortly post launch of the product WorkBeads affimAb; and iii) activist-like investments by the new owners and board members Peter Ehrenheim (Chairman) and Thomas Eklund (Director), holding a total of 17% together with a group of similar investors.